Lead Prices Maintain Fluctuating Trend, Discount on Secondary Refined Lead Expands Marginally [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,970/mt, moving sideways during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it dipped to a low of $1,967/mt, then rebounded and fluctuated upward to a high of $1,986.5/mt. However, due to increased bearish positions, LME lead gave up all gains and finally closed at $1,971.5/mt, with a % change of 0.

On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract opened at 17,075 yuan/mt. After briefly touching a low of 17,055 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, it rose to a high of 17,155 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward and finally closed at 17,075 yuan/mt, up 0.15%.

On the macro front:

Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy-duty trucks. He Lifeng held a video call with US Treasury Secretary Besant and Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of China-US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. China's Ministry of Finance: In the first three quarters, national general public budget revenue was 16,387.6 billion yuan, up 0.5% YoY; securities transaction stamp tax was 144.8 billion yuan, up 103.4% YoY. China's State Administration for Market Regulation: Established and promoted the implementation of an NEV fire accident enterprise reporting system.

:

SHFE lead continued to consolidate, while regional supply tightness in the spot market became evident. Some suppliers began transferring goods to the east China market. Current spot quotations are still scarce. Additionally, cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters in north China are tight. Suppliers showed reluctance to sell at low prices due to the lead price drop, or refused to budge on prices when selling. Quotations were at premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Meanwhile, secondary refined lead quotations maintained discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with some accepting high-priced lead due to tight supply, but more adopted a wait-and-see stance, while others primarily relied on long-term contract purchases.

Inventory: On October 17, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,600 mt to 250,400 mt. As of October 16, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions tracked by SMM reached 37,700 mt, an increase of 1,700 mt from October 13.

Today's lead price forecast:

Primary lead side, maintenance and production resumptions coexisted at smelters in north China, coupled with transportation conflicts with the fruit and vegetable season, resulting in limited spot circulation; suppliers refused to budge on prices when selling. Secondary lead side, smelters faced factors such as scrap undersupply and limited profits when resuming production, limiting the expansion of secondary refined lead discounts. Demand side, downstream enterprise production was stable with an increase. Besides long-term contract purchases, spot order purchases were also gradually recovering.

Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.